As February unfolds, one pattern is becoming clearer: travel demand is not declining; it’s segmenting.

Leisure intent remains strong, yet consumer confidence is sharply divided by income. Meanwhile, Canadian travel continues to decline, inbound recovery remains incomplete, and affluent Americans are traveling abroad at elevated rates.

But this blog isn’t about the whole year. It’s about the booking window in front of us, as spring decisions begin shaping summer outcomes.

Below are the signals shaping spring travel right now and how destinations can convert concentrated demand into summer momentum.

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Strong Intent, Uneven Confidence

According to Future Partners’ February 2026 State of the American Traveler, 58.5% of Americans say leisure travel is a high priority in the next three months. Travelers expect to take roughly four trips over the next year.

However, confidence is concentrated among higher-income households. Lower- and middle-income consumers report significantly weaker financial outlooks, reinforcing a K-shaped demand environment. Source: Future Partners

Our Datafy take and what this means for you

Demand is holding, but it is disproportionately driven by affluent, multi-trip travelers. However, most destinations need visitors across income levels to fill rooms and STR units. 

Shift targeting toward higher-income, high-frequency segments while clearly articulating value and flexibility for middle-market travelers. Lean into experiential differentiation that resonates with younger, experience-driven audiences.

Analytics trends to watch in your Datafy dashboard

• Tracking household income level changes among visitors over time

• Trip frequency trends among repeat visitors

• Conversion rates across audience segments for campaigns

Government Shutdown Creates Perception Risk

The partial government shutdown has TSA agents working unpaid, briefly triggered PreCheck suspension concerns, and left Global Entry enrollment systems offline. Flights are currently operating normally, but operational strain risk grows as funding uncertainty continues into a critical spring booking window. Sources: WMUR; The Points Guy; The Washington Post

Our Datafy take and what this means for you

Booking psychology can shift quickly when operational headlines create uncertainty, particularly among high-frequency air travelers.

Drive markets should lean into proximity and ease-of-access positioning while volatility persists. Equip partners with consistent messaging to reduce traveler friction. 

Analytics trends to watch

• Track changes in market share by fly markets

• Monitor drive-market share shifts 

• To fuel immediate visitation, lean into high-performing drive traveler marketing

Prices Are Stable. Personal Finances & Confidence Is the Real Barrier.

The U.S. Travel Association’s January Travel Price Index shows travel prices up just 0.3% YOY, which is below overall inflation. Hotel rates remain soft YOY, and gasoline prices have declined. Travel is comparatively affordable. This means that consumer hesitation is based on personal finances or psychologically based, not price-driven.  Source: U.S. Travel Association

Our Datafy take and what this means for you

It’s important to lead with value for the money messaging at all price points - even affluent travelers want to know they’re getting the most out of their experiential investment.  

Highlight regional and drive-market convenience, promote shoulder-season value, and bundle experiences rather than cutting rates. Messaging should make travel feel smart and justified.

Analytics trends to watch

• Growth in regional and in-state visitation

• Booking window compression 

• Conversion rates for value-driven creative 

Inbound Recovery Stalls as U.S. Outbound Surges

Non-U.S. citizen air arrivals declined 4.8% YOY in January and remain below 2019 levels. At the same time, outbound U.S. travel is over 25% above pre-pandemic benchmarks. Affluent Americans are traveling abroad at elevated levels. Source: Altexsoft

Our Datafy take and what this means for you

Inbound recovery cannot be assumed, and domestic high-income travelers face increasing global competition.

Prioritize international markets showing measurable growth. Strengthen airline partnerships in performing corridors. Compete for affluent domestic travelers with differentiated, premium positioning.

Analytics trends to watch

• High-income domestic audience engagement

• Length-of-stay trends among international cohorts

Canadian Travel Declines Continue

Canadian return trips from the U.S. declined approximately 24% YOY in January, with both auto and air travel down significantly. Sources: Skift; Statistics Canada

Our Datafy take and what this means for you

Canada remains critical by volume, but softness requires strategic recalibration rather than passive reliance.

Evaluate performance at the metro level. Concentrate spend in resilient Canadian pockets while reinforcing high-performing regional domestic markets.

Analytics trends to watch

• Metro-level Canadian visitation market share

• Track attribution of cross-border campaigns

• Measure domestic drive market performance if and when budget has been reallocated from Canada. 

Modest Growth, Segment Divergence for Hotels

STR and Tourism Economics forecast 2026 RevPAR growth at just 0.6%, with Q1 slightly negative. Higher-tier properties are expected to outperform, while economy segments remain under pressure. Source: CoStar 

Our Datafy take and what it means for you

Growth will be limited and uneven. Market share gains matter more than broad expansion.

Align campaigns with compression periods and support mid-scale partners through experience bundling rather than rate discounting. Plan early for shoulder-season demand gaps.

Analytics trends to watch

• Length of stay by hotel segment

• ADR trends by hotel segment 

• Shoulder-season performance trends

Our Final Take: The Next 90 Days Define Summer

This isn’t a demand crisis. It’s a spring and early-summer execution moment. Travelers are booking now. They’re planning now. And budgets are already being allocated for travelers' trips for the year.

Over the next 90 days, destinations that outperform will:

1. Prioritize high-propensity, multi-trip households who are actively planning
2. Reinforce value and clarity where confidence is fragile with lower- and middle-income travelers
3. Monitor pacing in air, Canadian, and key feeder markets
4. Work to protect share in top-performing drive and short-haul markets through smart segmentation and campaigns
5. Compete intentionally for affluent travelers weighing international options
   
   

Spring campaigns aren’t about broad inspiration; they’re about conversion.

The right audiences.
The right message.
The right timing.

Demand exists. But it’s selective. Destinations that move decisively now will carry that momentum into summer.

Need some ideas for spring/summer campaign success? Check out these three destination campaigns that crushed it and be the next success story.